Around 500,000 people in Armenia are undernourished, according to the UN World Food Program’s Hunger Map. The population of Armenia, according to the source, is 3 million. At the same time, over the past month, the number of people suffering from malnutrition has increased by 70,000 people. According to the map, about 4.4% of children under the age of 5 in the country suffer from acute malnutrition and 9.4% from chronic malnutrition. According to the World Bank, Armenia recorded a 7% increase in poverty in 2021. In 2020, it was 27%.
Armenia is among the countries with a fairly high level of poverty, which is facilitated by many reasons and factors.
In April of this year, Armenian Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan said that the most important economic risk is food security, and, as a result, high inflation, which will lead to increased poverty. “According to today's calculations, if we fail to ensure that economic growth is distributed among all (strata of the population), if the incomes of people from vulnerable segments do not grow, then instead of the current poverty level of 27%, we will close the year with poverty of 42%,” he said in an interview with the Public Television of Armenia. Kerobyan explained that the consumer basket is becoming more expensive, and another 15% of the population will be below the poverty line.
But poverty in Armenia is not a recent problem.
For example, according to official statistics, in 2007 the poverty rate in Armenia was 26.4%, or 950,000 people (according to official data, the population of the Republic of Armenia was 3,230,000 people).
Already in 2008, during the reign of Serzh Sargsyan, the poverty rate reached 27.6%. In subsequent years, the growth of this indicator continued, and Armenia closed the year 2012 with a poverty rate of 32.4%.
At the end of 2012, Serzh Sargsyan was again nominated as a candidate for the presidency of the Republic of Armenia. This time, participation in the elections was held under the motto “Toward a secured Armenia”. In his election program to overcome poverty, Sargsyan noted: “We need to eliminate the causes that give rise to poverty. Each family must ensure a comfortable life through work, and a family that finds itself in a difficult life situation should feel real support and help from the state.” In 2013, according to official data, 32% of the population in Armenia was poor, that is, every third inhabitant. In subsequent years, the situation did not change significantly. According to 2016 data, the number of the poor in the country reached 29.4%. This means that 880,000 people lived in poverty in Armenia (as of January 1, 2016, the permanent population of Armenia was 2,998,600 people). According to official data, in 2016, 34.2% of minors aged 0-18 were poor, that is, one in three. The lowest poverty rate was registered in 2008, and thereafter it remained at 33%.
As for the new authorities, the 2020 figures show that 47.6% of the population of Armenia are poor, 0.7% are hungry. These are people whose monthly income in 2020 did not exceed 23,828 drams per month. At a government meeting on February 3 this year, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that 659,471 jobs were registered in Armenia in 2021, which, according to him, "is an absolute record in the history of the third republic." He also noted that last year the number of people receiving a salary of more than 150,000 drams increased by 9%.
But there are some questions about migration rates. If everything is so good, then why do people emigrate from Armenia? According to official statistics, more than 100,000 people left Armenia in 2021.
On the other hand, trying to contain inflation and for this purpose periodically raising the refinancing rate, the Central Bank of Armenia actually raises loans, making life even more difficult for citizens living on credit.
On the other hand, Armenian economists are confident that this instrument alone is not enough to prevent inflationary risks in the country. Interestingly, Armenian experts warn that the population has been decreasing in the country since the late 90s, and over the past few years, the birth rate has not compensated for the death rate, which indicates depopulation in the country. Moreover, further population decline is expected due to natural decline, low reproduction and increasing migration. The generation of the 2000s enter into marriages, and there are 40% fewer of them than those born in the 80s. As a result, there will be fewer marriages and new families.
According to the World Bank, Armenia's population has been steadily declining since 1990. The country has a population of 2.9 million and a birth rate of 1.6 million, well below self-reproduction. The population is gradually decreasing. Armenia has already reached the point of demographic crisis. That’s because the death rate in the country exceeds the birth rate. Among the 20-40-year-olds, the demographic balance has been disturbed – the country lacks 60,000 men. The main reason is emigration.
According to the forecasts of the UN Population Fund, the population of Armenia will decrease from the current 2,959,700 people to 2,816,000 by 2050. The natural increase in Armenia in 2020 amounted to 1,070 people. When compared with the figure for 1990, it is clear that the increase has decreased by almost 54 times (down from 57,900).
Result. According to many experts, economic growth will begin in Armenia after the normalization of relations between Yerevan and Baku and Ankara. The consequence of the normalization of Yerevan’s relations with Baku and Ankara will be, first of all, the growth of economic well-being in Armenia.